Behnam Ben Taleblu. The administration’s objective is a better agreement that addresses the JCPOA’s fatal flaws. 0 The Globalist is committed to protecting your online privacy. That theory of “moderation through economic seduction” failed miserably with the Chinese Communist Party and Vladimir Putin. The Islamic Republic no longer had to make painful budgetary choices between guns for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF), Lebanese Hezbollah, and pro-Iran militias in Iraq, as opposed to butter for its citizens. endstream endobj startxref 41 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<0E7F7C2D5157FC47BEF162A8A89C5DCB><0515D7B9FDDD8541BD3617B476EC9CA9>]/Index[20 32]/Info 19 0 R/Length 104/Prev 157526/Root 21 0 R/Size 52/Type/XRef/W[1 3 1]>>stream Full bio → Turkey and Iran: The Best of Frenemies. Get The Globalist's latest headlines in your email inbox three times a week. The way to secure such an agreement is to escalate all forms of pressure on the clerical regime until it faces a stark choice between its own survival and the abandonment of its nuclear ambitions, foreign aggression, and grave human rights violations. By Merve Tahiroglu and Behnam Ben Taleblu, July 16, 2015 in Global HotSpots, Globalist Paper. The key economic indicators demonstrate clearly: From GDP to inflation rates, oil exports, accessible foreign exchange reserves, the value of the Iranian rial relative to the U.S. dollar, and more, U.S. unilateral sanctions have inflicted a greater cost – and in less time – than previous multilateral penalties. There are numerous ways the United States can shows its support: more targeted designations for human rights abuses and corruption; platforms to help Iranians circumvent Internet restrictions; humanitarian relief efforts through international non-governmental organizations to bypass the regime; public messaging that supports a peaceful democratic Iran; and respect for human rights as a key condition of any comprehensive agreement. Europe remains committed to defending the JCPOA as it hunkers down in the hope that former Vice President Joe Biden will succeed Trump as president and return America to the JCPOA. Speaker Session Summary. The administration also broke taboos long observed by Washington’s foreign policy establishment, including an aversion to designating the IRGC in its entirety as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), blacklisting Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and sanctioning Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister. From the beginning of his 2016 campaign, President Donald Trump insisted that the JCPOA was a bad deal. First, it should not offer Tehran any premature sanctions relief. Put to the choice between the U.S. market and the U.S. dollar on the one hand and the Iranian market on the other, multinational companies cut their ties with the Islamic Republic. %%EOF In contrast, the Trump administration has drained hundreds of billions of dollars from the Iranian treasury. COVID 19: Post-Truth Age – Or Facts Making a Comeback. Copyright © 2017 The Globalist. Trump’s decision to kill IRGC-QF commander Qassem Soleimani intensified the operational and psychological pressure while avoiding the “World War Three” that his critics predicted. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CEFP and @FDD_CMPP. Contact Us. Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation, not offer Tehran any premature sanctions relief, enhancing audit and due diligence requirements. Market forces, even more than political consensus, can sometimes achieve national security objectives. The Islamic Republic has been at war with the United States for decades, murdering Americans and seeking to dominate the Middle East through its terrorist proxies. U.S. sanctions did not need support from allies to work, as JCPOA defenders had long maintained. For more analysis from Mark, Behnam, the Iran Program, CEFP, and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. In the two years since the United States left the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action , the Trump administration has adopted a policy of … This Privacy Policy describes how The Globalist uses and protects your personally identifiable data and constitutes an agreement between you and The Globalist. Cash did little to transform the Islamic Republic’s leaders into more responsible global citizens or improve their treatment of the Iranian people. By using our website, you agree to the be governed by our Privacy Policy. Tensions since Ottomans and Persians led rival empires that fought for control of the Middle East. Chief Executive. h�bbd```b``Z Speaker: Ben Taleblu, B. Behnam previously served as a research fellow and senior Iran analyst at FDD. Daily online magazine on the global economy, politics and culture. All rights reserved. 51 0 obj <>stream Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to its Iran Program and Center for Military and Political Power (CMPP). Few believe the risks of Tehran’s illicit conduct will diminish even if a Biden administration lifts sanctions. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy. Last summer, Washington did not respond to Iranian regional and nuclear escalation, culminating in a cruise missile and drone strike on Saudi Arabia that knocked offline almost 6 million barrels of daily production. Behnam Ben Taleblu is an analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which has been pushing for crippling U.S. sanctions against Iran and an extension of the UN arms embargo. But even this high bar for the use of force can make allies skeptical about American staying power in the region while incentivizing Iran-backed Shiite militias to continue their attacks. Diminishing American leverage led to the fatally flawed JCPOA in the first place and has not worked in the administration’s negotiations with North Korea, in which Trump’s summit diplomacy undermined the pressure campaign. This Privacy Policy describes how The Globalist uses and protects your personally identifiable data and constitutes an agreement between you and The Globalist. In addition, the administration’s successful campaign to get the United Kingdom and Germany to blacklist Hezbollah as a terrorist organization demonstrated that both pressure and diplomacy could work against Tehran’s most deadly Arab proxy. endstream endobj 21 0 obj <. Despite these successes, the current policy has vulnerabilities. Follow Mark on Twitter @mdubowitz. They both contribute to FDD’s Iran Program, Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP), and Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). More lawmakers and prospective 2024 presidential candidates can reinforce these political and market risks by supporting a Senate resolution that “rejects the reapplication of sanctions relief provided for in the JCPOA.” This would underscore how companies will be whipsawed again, as they were between 2015 and 2018, if they return to Iran without bipartisan support for a new agreement. May 7, 2020 Insight Two Years On, the Trump Administration’s Iran Policy Continues to Make Sense. Add a biography for this author » FAVORITE (0 fans) Quotes from the news wire: Iran is a prime example of the different approaches taken by the current and previous U.S. administrations. Rather than permanently blocking Iran’s pathway to nuclear weapons, the deal opens a patient path; if the JCPOA endures until its key provisions expire (or “sunset”), Tehran would emerge around 2025 with an industrial-scale nuclear program, a short path to a bomb, ballistic missiles to deliver that bomb, a conventional force newly equipped with foreign weapons, and its economy immunized against future sanctions. Turkish authorities on Monday detained Maryam Shariatmadari, an anti-Hijab activist twice-jailed in I ran, threatening deportation back to her home country. Prior to his time at FDD, Behnam worked on non -proliferation issues at an arms control think-tank in Washington. These were political “firsts” that further boxed in the regime. The designation of the Central Bank of Iran for funding terrorism, the designation of the IRGC as an FTO, and the re-architecting of many of the sanctions to make them based on terrorism, missile proliferation, or connections to the IRGC will pose significant risks to these companies. By Behnam Ben Taleblu and Aykan Erdemir . �����nX6����?�� ~|? Iran … The use of certain cookies is required for the site to function correctly. The most immediate sanctions target is to tighten the noose on Iran’s regional and non-oil trade, which is where Tehran is generating revenue while under sanctions.

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